There are a lot of different viewpoints on the role of
the United States in the global arena. Is the country still as influential as
it once was? Are other countries catching up? And what about globalization and
the multilateral approach to global governing? Read on to learn about the
history of the United States’ status as a superpower.
HOW
DID THE UNITED STATES BECOME A SUPERPOWER?
The United States’ pilgrimage toward becoming the
world’s superpower started at the dawn of the 19th century. After the 1898
Treaty of Paris, it became a colonial power with overseas territories,
including Puerto Rico, the Philippines, and the Island of Guam. At that point
in time, the United States could already be viewed as a great power or emerging
superpower. After the two World Wars, France, Germany, Japan, and Great Britain
were in decline due to immense economic hardships and military losses. At the
same time, the United States and the Soviet Union were rising to power, but
creating a dangerous rivalry for global dominance.
After the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the
Soviet Union, the United States became the world’s sole superpower. The world
moved from bipolarity to unimultipolarity, meaning that one nation began to
project its influence to other nations. During the next several decades, the
United States waged wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the 9/11 terrorist attacks
occurred, the global War on Terror was started, the Middle East broke into
chaos, and Latin America was defined by multiple American interventions. All in
all, many significant events have happened, but how did they influence
America’s international standing?
IS THE UNITED STATES A SUPERPOWER NOW?
If the United States is still a superpower and not in
decline, it should maintain military, political, economic, cultural, and
scientific superiority as to exercise global dominance.
In fact, the United States has one of the most advanced
militaries in the world. As of 2012, American military expenditures accounted
for 4.35 percent of its GDP, and 37 percent of global military spending. Even
though the U.S. military spending decreased by six percent in 2012, American
military expenditures still outnumber those of China and Russia. The U.S.
spends approximately $600 billion a year on its military, more than many
countries combined. It has military bases all over the word, numbering at least
1,000, while other nations generally have few military installations outside
their territories. In addition, the American drone air fleet is able to reach
almost anywhere without deploying ground troops or aircraft carriers.
Economic development has slowed and debt has risen, but
the American economy is one of the most advanced in the world. According to the
CIA Factbook, “the U.S. has the most technologically powerful economy in the
world.” Even though its GDP is third to China and the European Union, America
maintains its economic dominance when comparing Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).
Its GDP per capita is significantly higher than those of China and Russia,
accounting for $54,800 in 2014. But, there are also some problems, including:
Stagnation of wages for lower-income families,
inadequate investment in deteriorating infrastructure, rapidly rising medical
and pension costs of an aging population, energy shortages, and sizable current
account and budget deficits.
In addition, the United States has the second largest
foreign debt, and its account balance is $385 billion in the red. Its
unemployment rate is also rather high at 6.2 percent in 2014, which is more
than China and Russia.
On the bright side, the United States has the most
impressive world trade profile. Only China and the European Union export more
than the U.S., while no other country imports more. But most importantly, the
U.S. stock market is still the base of global finance, and the U.S. dollar is
the global currency. More than 80 percent of worldwide transactions and 87
percent of foreign market transactions are conducted in the U.S. dollar.
America also has Hollywood, Silicon Valley, Ivy League
Universities, and can be considered the cultural, educational, and
technological hub. More people immigrate to the United States than to any other
country, contributing to the economy and innovation.
According to Michael Beckley, Assistant Professor at
Tufts University and a former research fellow at the International Security
Program at Harvard University, the United States is not in decline, but quite
the opposite–it’s thriving. In this view, globalization is attracting economic
activity, reinforcing American power in the global arena.
Robert Kagan, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution
and chairman of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on the United
States, argues a slightly different viewpoint. He believes that the United
States has never had its way in foreign affairs to start with. According to
Kagan, the decline of the United States’ influence is a myth and an illusion:
Much of today’s impressions about declining American
influence are based on a nostalgic fallacy: that there was once a time when the
United States could shape the whole world to suit its desires.
IS THE
UNITED STATES’ WORLD INFLUENCE DECLINING?
It’s commonly believed that the United States is
experiencing the decline of its global power. Christopher Layne, Distinguished
Professor of International Affairs and Robert M. Gates Chair in National
Security at the Bush School of Government and Public Service, argues that global power is shifting from West to East,
leading to an American decline in influence and loss of global dominance.
Those
who support the notion that America’s superpower status is fading often argue
the following:
·
Due to its policies in the Middle East and Latin
America, America lost its soft power influence over other countries. The war in
Iraq is widely considered a failure that exhausted the U.S. military and broke
the bank, increasing the country’s debt and leading to even greater
proliferation of terrorism in the Middle East.
·
Starting from the period of
decolonization, America portrayed itself as a protector of human rights and
democratic values. Nevertheless, after 9/11, the United States widely used
torture against suspected terrorists, who were confined in Guantanamo Bay and
other “black sites.” Basically, the United States condemns other countries for
violating human rights but abuses those principles itself. America didn’t sign
various important international treaties. For example, while the majority
of countries can be prosecuted in the International Criminal Court (ICC) if
their leaders commit certain international crimes, the United States cannot,
suggesting double standards and tendency toward unilateral decision-making.
·
At home, the state of permanent
impasse in Congress is making it extremely difficult
to make any progress in making decisions or reforming outdated and often
counterproductive laws. In addition, racial inequality and poverty are on the
rise, and infrastructure is deteriorating without proper investments.
·
The U.S. economy still hasn’t fully recovered from
the 2008 financial collapse, while other countries such as China, India,
Brazil, and Turkey are becoming stronger in terms of
their economies and militaries.
Some
even compare the United States with the British Empire, referring to its
collapse a century ago. But, at the very least, this viewpoint suggests that
America has lost the favor of many countries. Meanwhile, China has reached the
status of a great power, and globalization has become omnipresent.
Stephen
Walt, Belfer Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy
School of Government, argues that “the real issue is whether developments at
home and overseas are making it harder for the United States to exercise the
kind of dominant influence that it did for much of the latter half of the 20th
century.”
According to this view,
the United States is not declining and is still one of the most powerful
countries in the world, but its capacity to lead global order has been
diminished due to the array of domestic and foreign policy failures. As the
Cold War ended, international relations also changed, making it more difficult
for the United States to exercise its influence in the world.
Further,
Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group, argues in his book “Superpower:
Three choices for America’s Role in the World” that the United States is still
a global superpower. Watch the video below with Ian Bremmer to learn more
about possible scenarios.
HOW WILL THE
FUTURE WORLD ORDER LOOK?
As world
affairs become more hectic and complex, with multiple players reaching regional
influence and certain countries, such as China, steadily gaining more power
in the global arena, the world is turning toward multipolarity. According
to Global Trends 2030,
compiled by the National Intelligence Council, the United States will lose its
superpower status by 2030. Global networks and coalitions will run the show,
and no single country will have superpower status. Interestingly, Asia is
predicted to experience greater democratization, and the region itself is
expected to become more influential in global affairs.
And
what about China?
During the
last several decades, many countries have improved their global standings
due to economic growth and strategic foreign policy moves. According
to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), “The balance of global
economic power is shifting from the United States and Europe to a number of
fast-growing and large developing countries.” Among those countries are
China, India, and Brazil. Russia and the European Union are also influential in
the global arena.
China is
often invoked as the most likely competitor of the United States in terms of
superpower status. A Pew Research Center public opinion survey found that an
increasing number of Americans view China as the next global superpower.
However, China is stillseen as “not yet
influential.” While China’s economy grows, its military is still lacking. Many
Chinese are still impoverished, it has serious water and soil-pollution
problems, and its Communist Party is highly stratified and rigid. China’s
geopolitical position is another issue. Most of its
neighbors are allies of the United States and strong global powers, including
Japan, South Korea, and Australia. North Korea and Taiwan are also risk
factors.
The United States is still enjoying its
superpower status, but times are changing. Other countries are rising and
America’s power may be waning. In order to preserve its global leadership, the
United States should nurture global relationships and behave according to
international law and its democratic principles and values. As the world is
moving toward multipolarity, America should also make more friends, not
enemies. It should be setting an example of global leadership and stay true to
its principles without abusing its power.
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