Iraq Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced Monday the
final phase of the offensive to retake Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city. Here
are some key questions and answers:
How
important is the battle?
Mosul is the most critical battle to date in the
campaign to drive the Islamic State from Iraq. It is Iraq’s second largest city
and was captured by militants more than two years ago. Driving the militants
from the city will mean the end of the Islamic State’s self-declared caliphate
in Iraq.
What
are the main challenges?
Urban fighting is the most challenging type of warfare
for ground units. It requires highly disciplined and trained soldiers because
the fighting is complex. Junior leaders need to be able to make decisions on
their own and soldiers have to withhold fire if civilians are endangered. The
close-in street fighting makes it difficult to use coalition airstrikes and
artillery. There are an estimated one million civilians in Mosul and the
Islamic State frequently uses human shields.
How
many militants are in Mosul and how many Iraqi forces will be involved in the
operation?
The Pentagon estimates there are between 3,000 and 4,500
militants in the city. They are of varying levels of commitment. But several
hundred will probably elect to fight and die. Others will likely flee. The
militants have had years to build elaborate defenses, including tunnels and
booby traps. The main Iraqi attack force will consist of about 12 U.S.-trained
brigades, more than 30,000 troops. Loyal tribal and self-defense units will
also be used to provide security once the militants have been expelled from the
city.
Are
Americans involved?
U.S. advisers are at the headquarters level in a number
of Iraqi units, though they do not accompany Iraqi troops into battle. U.S.-led
coalition troops have trained all the Iraqi brigades that will be involved in
the operation. Coalition airstrikes have ramped up targets in Mosul in recent
months as Iraqi forces began moving to surround the city and prepare for the
final assault.
How
long will it take?
There are too many variables in warfare to make reliable
predictions, but the fighting is sure to be slow and may take weeks or months.
Even if militants attempt to flee the city, the elaborate booby traps and other
obstacles have to be carefully and methodically dismantled.
What
happens next?
The Islamic State has been increasingly turning to
terror tactics – bombings and assassinations – in the region and around the
world, even as it has lost territory. The loss of the Islamic State’s
self-proclaimed caliphate, however, will hurt the militants ability to recruit
and will liberate hundreds of thousands of people from under its yoke. Many of
the sectarian tensions that gave rise to the Islamic State still exist in Iraq,
which could make stabilizing cities like Mosul difficult and could lead to
further violence.
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