With the imminent arrival of its lone aircraft carrier
off the coast of Syria, Russia is set to bulk up its military campaign ahead of
what probably will be a renewed bombing campaign on the besieged city of
Aleppo.
The Admiral Kuznetsov, the Russian Navy's
1,000-foot-long, MiG-carrying flagship, was last seen steaming through the
Mediterranean toward the Syrian coast after a mid-sea refueling that -
incredibly - was captured by satellite. It is unclear exactly where the
carrier, technically known as a "heavy aviation cruiser," and its
accompanying battlegroup actually are in relation to its final destination. The
small armada, however, looks like it will arrive within days of the Syrian
government's plan to close a number of humanitarian corridors running out of
eastern Aleppo.
Much has been made of the Kuznetsov's capabilities and
the aging Soviet hulk's propensity to break down. But even though the carrier
isn't capable of launching the same number of aircraft as, say, a U.S. super
carrier, it will be able to bring a number of aircraft over the battlefields of
Syria, including multi-role fighters and attack helicopters. And for the
Russians, just the fact that they can do that is enough, according to Dmitry
Gorenburg, a senior research scientist at CNA who focuses on the Russian
military.
"The Kuznetsov is not necessary for [Russia's
operations in Syria] but its to highlight the fact they have that
ability," Gorenburg said.
The Kuznetsov, with its ramped flight deck and lack of a
catapult system, can't launch its jet aircraft - a mixture of MiG 29Ks and
Su-33s - fully loaded with weapons and fuel, Gorenburg said. But for the
Russians, that isn't nearly as important as their military being able to field
carrier-capable aircraft and training pilots in the extremely difficult task of
taking off and landing from a floating runway in the middle of the ocean.
"This show of force, and great power status, is
largely for a domestic audience," said Michael Kofman, a colleague of
Gorenburg's who also focuses on Russian military issues.
The shuttering of the humanitarian corridors - escape
routes that have been open for roughly a week - probably will pave the way for
a fresh round of Syrian and Russian airstrikes, some of which might be carried
out from the Kuznetsov. Earlier this week, some of the opposition groups began
a counteroffensive of their own, shunning the corridors and a chance to leave,
attacking government-held portions of the city. Fighting has been intense, but
there have been few breakthroughs.
Russian military support, namely by way of aircraft and
artillery, has been essential for Syrian government-aligned ground forces since
Russia began airstrikes in Syria in September of last year.
In March, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced
that Russia's military objectives had been met in the country and announced a
gradual withdrawal. According to satellite imagery and news reports, that
withdrawal was only one in name, as Russia reshuffled some of its attack
aircraft from its main air base in northern Syria.
Since then, the roughly two dozen Russian aircraft - a
mixture of multi-role fighters, bombers and attack helicopters - have operated
almost nonstop, lending much needed support to a depleted Syrian army and air
force. Despite the influx in muscle, the Syrian government and its myriad
supporting militias have been unable to wrest control of the opposition's main
urban stronghold of Aleppo. Instead, the reinvigorated forces have made gains,
some sizable, in more rural areas.
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