Voting in America is over. Donald Trump has emerged
victorious over Hillary Clinton and will become the 45th President of the USA.
Early signs as to how this unexpected result occurred
can be seen in demographic exit poll data, with Clinton doing worse than
expected among women, Hispanic voters and African Americans.
By comparing Clinton's performance to Obama's in 2012 it
is easy to see that she failed to appeal to a number of key voter groups.
Groups that it was predicted she would have more support from.
Donald Trump's problems with women have been well
documented in the media. He has consistently made derogatory remarks against
women, calling some "dogs" and "slobs".
At the beginning of October a tape of Trump apparently
celebrating sexual assault in a conversation with Billy Bush was released by
the Washington Post. It led to a series of allegations against Trump as women
came forward to speak out, causing his polling numbers to slump.
This was thought to have helped to drive women to vote
for Clinton, with some polls showing a double-figure divide between men and
women's support for the presidential candidates.
Although last night's exit polls do show that 54 per
cent of women backed Clinton compared to 42 per cent for Trump, these numbers
were not significantly different from how women voted in 2012.
In the 2012 presidential race 55 per cent of women
backed Obama while 44 per cent backed Romney.
Despite all the headlines surrounding Trump, it seems
that women didn't feel they could get behind Hillary Clinton.
Clinton had less support from the young
In 2012, a majority of over-50s backed Romney for the
presidency, while Obama got the support of three in five of those aged under
30.
In 2016, polling was showing that Trump's support among
older sections of society had improved on Romney's figure - with 49 per cent of
over-65s supporting him, compared to 29 per cent of 18 to 39-year-olds.
This was hugely positive for Trump in the key swing
state of Florida. Worth 29 electoral college votes, Florida's high over-65
population was expected to back the Republican candidate leaving Clinton in
need of a solid turnout among younger voters if she was to win the state.
However, the exit polls showed that Clinton's popularity
among younger voters was much lower than Obama's.
Of those voters aged under 30 years of age, only 55 per
cent backed Clinton compared to Obama's 60 per cent in 2012.
This might have proved enough to swing Florida towards
Trump and it could also be a factor behind his victory in Pennsylvania -
something which there was less expectation of.
Trump gained support among Hispanic and African American
voters
The obvious attraction of voting for America's first
black president in 2008 and 2012 led to large proportion of minority ethnic
groups backing Obama for the presidency.
Polling figures showed that ethnic minorities still
looked set to support the Democrat candidate this time round with some polls
showing that just 17 per cent of Hispanics and three per cent of African
Americans supported Trump.
Trump's comments about Mexicans having "lots of
problems", "bringing drugs" and being "rapists" were
also thought to have done little to garner the support of Hispanic communities.
This was meant to have a lot of significance in the
campaign, with Hispanics accounting for more than a fifth of the population in
four key swing states including Florida.
Again, things didn't go as well for Clinton as she would
have hoped. Exit polls show that Clinton's support among Hispanic voters was
just 65 per cent, down from Obama's 71 per cent in 2012 while among black
voters support was down from 93 per cent to 88 per cent.
Meanwhile support among Hispanic voters was actually
higher for Trump, at 29 per cent, compared to the 27 per cent Romney secured
four years ago.
Rural, white America backed Trump emphatically
The exit polling from last night's election also reveals
that the divide between rural and urban communities in America has widened
since 2012.
Traditionally people in urban areas, such as cities, are
far more likely to vote for Democrat candidates, while those in small towns and
sparsely populated areas are far more likely to vote Republican.
Four years ago 50 per cent of those in small cities and
rural areas voted for Romney while Obama did well on 48 per cent.
It would seem that Trump was extremely successful in
appealing to these voters with 62 per cent supporting him in his presidential
bid - a double-digit percentage point increase.
Similarly, Clinton performed significantly worse than
Obama did among those at the lower end of the pay scale with 52 per cent of
those earning less than $50,000 voting for her compared to 60 per cent for
Obama.
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